A monthly index forecasting economic conditions in the United States continues to decline, signaling slowing and what could be recession.

The Conference Board reported its Leading Economic Indicator fell eight-tenths of a percent to 103.9 in October. A separate measure of current conditions remained unchanged, while a measure of past conditions edged up.

Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, the senior manager of business cycle indicators at the Conference Board, said the Leading Economic Index signals recession in the near term. “The Conference Board expects elevated inflation, high interest rates and contracting consumer spending — due to depleting pandemic saving and mandatory student loan repayments — to tip the U.S. economy into a very short recession.”

The Leading Economic Index fell 3.3 percent over the past six months with weaknesses among leading indicators more widespread than strengths.

Gross domestic product, the broad measure of goods and services produced in the country, rose at an annual rate of 4.9 percent during the third quarter. The Conference Board forecasts GDP to grow only eight-tenths of a percent in 2024.

For October, six of 10 indicators of the Leading Economic Index declined, including consumer expectations, interest rate spread, leading credit and new orders indexes and stock prices. An increase in averagely weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits also pulled down the index. Building permits and new orders for consumer goods increased. Averagely weekly manufacturing hours and new orders for capital goods held steady.

The Coincident Economic Index remained unchanged at 110.8. The index increased nine-tenths of a percent over the past six months. For October, three of four indicators increased— nonfarm payrolls, personal income and sales. Industrial produced decreased.

The Lagging Economic Index edged up a tenth of a percent to 118.6. The index increased four-tenths of a percent over the past three months. For October, three of seven components of the index advanced — commercial and industrial financing, cost of services and inventories. Labor costs retreated, and an increase in the average duration of unemployment also pulled down the index. The average prime rate and consumer credit held steady.