A monthly index forecasting economic conditions in the United States declined for an 11th straight month, signaling the risk of recession.

The Conference Board reported its Leading Economic Index fell three-tenths of a percent to 110 in February. Separate measures of current and past conditions increased.

While the leading index declined at slower pace in February than in the past several months, the latest information continues to point to risk of recession, said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager for business cycle indicators at the Conference Board.

“The most recent financial turmoil in the U.S. banking sector is not reflected in the LEI data, but could have a negative impact on the outlook if it persists,” she said. “Overall, the Conference Board forecasts rising interest rates paired with declining consumer spending will most likely push the U.S. economy into recession in the near term.”

The Leading Economic Index declined 3.6 percent over the past six months, more than the 3 percent drop in the six months before that.

Gross domestic product, the broad measure of goods and services produced in the country, grew at an annual rate of 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter and 3.2 percent in the third quarter.

For February, six of 10 components of the leading index retreated, including average weekly manufacturing hours, consumer expectations for business conditions, interest rate spread and leading credit and new orders indexes.An increase in average weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits also pulled down the index. Four components advanced — building permits, new orders for both capital and consumer goods and stock prices.

The Coincident Economic Index edged up a tenth of a percent to 109.8. The index increased six-tenths of a percent over the past six months.

For February, three of four components advanced — nonfarm payrolls, personal income and sales. Industrial production retreated.

The Lagging Economic Index rose two-tenths of a percent to 118.5. The index increased seven-tenths of a percent over the past three months.

For February, four of seven components advanced, including the average prime rate charged by banks, consumer credit and inventories. A decrease in the average duration of unemployment bolstered the index. Three components retreated — commercial and industrial financing and changes in the cost of labor and services.