A monthly index forecasting economic conditions in the United States has retreated to its lowest level in more than two years, signaling a growing possibility of recession.

The Conference Board reported its Leading Economic Index fell 1.2 percent to 108.4 in March. The index has declined for a full year, dropping to its lowest level since November 2020.

A separate measure of past performance also decreased in March, although a measure of current conditions increased.

The Leading Economic Index fell 4.5 percent over the past six months, a steeper decline than the 3.5 percent drop over the six months before that.

“The weaknesses among the index’s components were widespread in March and have been so over the past six months,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at the Conference Board.

A member-driven think tank based in New York, the Conference Board forecasted growing economic weakness leading to a recession starting in mid-2023.

Gross domestic product expanded at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022 and 3.2 percent in the third quarter.

For March, seven of 10 components of the Leading Economic Index retreated, including building permits, consumer expectations, interest rate spread, leading credit and new orders indexes and stock prices. An increase in average weekly claims for unemployment benefits also pulled down the index. New orders for consumer and capital goods increased. Average weekly manufacturing hours remained unchanged.

The Lagging Economic Index fell two-tenths of a percent to 118.3. The index has held steady over the past three months.

For March, four of seven components of the index retreated, including commercial and industrial financing as well as changes in the cost of labor and services. An increase in the duration of unemployment also pulled down the index. The average prime rate charged by banks, consumer credit and inventories all advanced.

The Coincident Economic Index increased two-tenths of a percent to 110.2. The index rose eight-tenths of percent over the past six months.

For March, all four components of the index rose — industrial production, nonfarm payrolls, personal income and sales.