Index: Inflation hampers small business optimism

William Dunkelberg

A measure of optimism among small business owners increased, but continued to reflect pessimism produced in part by inflation.

The National Federation of Independent Business reported its Small Business Optimism Index rose 1.2 points between March and April. But at 89.7, the latest reading remains below the 50-year average of 98 for the index.

“Cost pressures remain the top issue for small business owners, including historical high levels of owners raising compensation to keep and attract employees,” said Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist of the NFIB. “Overall, small business owners remain historically very pessimistic as they continue to navigate these challenges.”

The NFIB bases the index on the results of monthly surveys of members of the small business advocacy group, most of them small business owners. For April, seven of 10 components of the index advanced, two retreated and one remained unchanged.

The share of NFIB members who responded to the survey upon which the April index was based who expected the economy to improve fell a point between March and April. At a net negative 37 percent, more members anticipated worsening conditions ahead.

A net 22 percent reported plans for capital outlays, up two points. A net 4 percent said they considered now a good time to expand, unchanged from a month ago.

The proportion of owners who said they expected increased sales rose six points. But at net negative 12 percent, more owners expected decreased sales.

The share of owners who said they expected increased earnings rose two points, but only to a net negative 27 percent. Among owners reporting lower profits, 33 percent blamed weaker sales and 14 percent cited higher materials costs.

A net negative 6 percent of owners reported plans to increase inventories, up a point.

A net 12 percent of owners reported plans to increase staffing, up a point. A net 40 percent reported hard-to-fill job openings, up three points. A net 21 percent of owners reported plans to increase compensation in the next three months.

Asked to identify their single most important business problem, 22 percent of owners cited inflation and 19 percent cited the quality of labor.