Index signals slow growth ahead

A monthly index forecasting economic performance in the United States has edged up, signaling continued, albeit slow, growth.

The Conference Board reported that its Leading Economic Indicator rose a tenth of a percent to 123.7 in August. Separate measures of current and past economic performance also increased.

“The U.S. LEI suggests economic growth will remain moderate into the new year with little reason to expect growth to pick up substantially,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, an economist with the business research and membership association.

“Average working hours and new orders in manufacturing have been week, pointing to more slow growth in the industrial sector,” Ozyildirim said. “However, employment, personal income and manufacturing and trade sales have all been rising, helping to offset the weakness in industrial production in recent months.”

The Leading Economic Index has increased 2.3 percent over the past six months, a slightly faster pace than the 2 percent gain over the six months before that. Strengths among the leading indicators remain more widespread than weaknesses.

Gross domestic product, the broad measure of goods and services produced in the country, increased at an annual rate of 3.7 percent during the second quarter after a gain of six-tenths of a percent during the first quarter.

For August, five of the 10 components of the index advanced, including building permits, consumer expectations for business conditions, interest rate spread, a leading credit index and new orders for consumer goods and materials. A new orders index, new orders for capital goods and stock prices declined. An increase in average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance also pulled down the index. Average weekly manufacturing hours held steady.

The Coincident Economic Index, a measure of current conditions, also edged up a tenth of a percent in August to 112.6. The index has increased seven-tenths of a percent over the past six months.

For August, three of four components of the index advanced: nonfarm payrolls, personal income and sales. Industrial production declined.

The Lagging Economic Index, a measure of past performance, rose two-tenths of a percent to 118.5. The index has climbed 1.4 percent over the past three months.

For August, four of seven components of the index increased, including consumer credit, the cost of services, labor costs and inventories. Commercial and industrial financing declined, while an increase in the average duration of unemployment also pulled down the index. The average prime rate charged by banks held steady.