Leading index forecasts U.S. growth

An index forecasting economic conditions in the United States continues to increase, signaling growth in the months ahead.

The Conference Board reported its Leading Economic Index rose 1.1 percent to 119.9 in November. A separate measure of current conditions also increased, while a measure of past performance edged down.

The Leading Economic Index has advanced nine straight months, but remains below its previous peak in February 2020 and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Over the past six months, the index rose 4.6 percent, slower than the 4.9 percent gain in the six-month period before that. Strengths among the leading indicators remained widespread, however.

Gross domestic product, the broad measure of goods and services produced in the U.S., grew at an annual rate 2 percent in the third quarter and 6.7 percent in the second quarter.

For November, eight of 10 indicators of the index advanced, including average weekly manufacturing hours, building permits, interest rate spread, leading credit and new orders indexes, new orders for consumer goods and stock prices. A decrease in average weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits also bolstered the index. Consumer expectations for business conditions retreated. New orders for capital goods held steady.

The Coincident Economic Index rose three-tenths of a percent to 106.7. The index increased 2 percent over the past six months.

For November, all four indicators advanced: industrial production, nonfarm payrolls, personal income and sales.

The Lagging Economic Index slipped a tenth of a percent to 107.2. The index has increased 1.3 percent over the past three months

For November, three of seven indicators advanced: commercial and industrial financing, consumer credit and inventories. Labor and services costs declined. An increase in the average duration of unemployment also pulled down the index. The average prime rate charged by banks held steady.