A monthly index forecasting economic conditions remains unchanged, but also signals what could be slowing growth in the months ahead.

The Conference Board reports its Leading Economic Index (LEI) held steady at 111.8 in May following three consecutive months of increases.

“While the economic expansion is now entering its 11th year, the longest in U.S. history, the LEI clearly points to a moderation in growth towards 2 percent by year end,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, director of economic research at the business research and membership association.

The LEI has edged up three-tenths of a percent over the past six months, less than the 2.2 percent gain over the previous six-month span. Moreover, strengths among the leading indicators have become less widespread.

Ozyildirim said gains in consumer expectations and financial conditions offset weakness in stock prices and the manufacturing sector for May.

Gross domestic product, the broad measure of goods and services produced in the country, increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent during the first quarter of 2019 and 2.2 percent for the fourth quarter of 2018.

For May, five of 10 indicators of the LEI advanced, including building permits, consumer expectations, a leading credit index and new orders for both capital and consumer goods. A new orders index and stock prices declined. An increase in initial claims for unemployment benefits also pulled down the index. Average weekly manufacturing hours and the interest rate spread held steady.

The Coincident Economic Index (CEI), a measure of current conditions, rose two-tenths of a percent to 105.9. The CEI has increased seven-tenths of a percent over the past six months.

For June, all four of the indicators of the CEI advanced: industrial production, nonfarm payrolls, personal income and sales.

The Lagging Economic Index (LAG), a measure of past performance, fell two-tenths of a point to 107. The index has edged up a tenth of a percent over the past three months.

For May, five of seven indicators of the LAG retreated, including commercial and industrial financing, cost of both labor and services and inventories. An increase in the average duration of unemployment also pulled down the index. The ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income increased. The average prime rate charged by banks remained unchanged.