A monthly index forecasting economic conditions in the United States has retreated, signaling what could be slowing in the months ahead.

The Conference Board reported its Leading Economic Index fell three-tenths of a percent to 102.4 in March. A separate measure of current conditions increased. A measure of past conditions held steady.

Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at the Conference Board, said the leading index reflects the negative effects of several factors. “Overall, the index points to a fragile — even if not recessionary — outlook for the U.S. economy. Indeed, rising consumer debt, elevated interest rates and persistent inflation pressures continue to pose risks to economic activity in 2024.”

The leading index fell 2.2 percent over the previous six months after contracting 3.4 percent over the six months before that. Weakness among leading indicators has become more widespread.

Gross domestic product, the broad measure of goods and services produced in the country, expanded at an annual rate of 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023 after growing 4.9 percent in the third quarter.

The Conference Board forecast slowing in GDP growth over the second and third quarters of 2024.

For March, five of 10 indicators of the leading index declined, including building permits, consumer expectations for business conditions, interest rate spread and a new orders index. An increase in average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance also pulled down the index. The other five indicators of the index advanced — average weekly manufacturing hours, a leading credit index, new orders for both capital and consumer goods and stock prices.

The Coincident Economic Index rose three-tenths of a percent to 112. The index rose six-tenths of percent over the previous six months. For March, all four components increased — industrial production, nonfarm payrolls, personal income and sales.

The Lagging Economic Index remained unchanged at 119. The index rose nine-tenths of a percent over the past three months. For March, four of seven components decreased, including commercial and industrial financing, labor costs and inventories An increase in the average duration of unemployment also pulled down the index. A change in the price for services boosted the index. The average prime rate charged by banks and consumer credit held steady.