A monthly index forecasting economic conditions in the United States continues to decline, signaling weakness and what could be recession.

The Conference Board reported its Leading Economic Index decreased seven-tenths of a point to 104.6 in September. Separate measures of current and past conditions increased.

Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at the Conference Board, said the Leading Economic Index has declined every month since April 2022.

“So far, the U.S. economy has shown considerable resilience despite pressures from rising interest rates and high inflation. Nonetheless, the Conference Board forecasts that this trend will not be sustained for much longer, and a shallow recession is likely in the first half of 2024,” she said.

The Leading Index decreased 3.4 percent over the past six months, less than the 4.6 percent decline in the previous six-month span. Weaknesses among leading indicators were less widespread than strengths.

For September, six of 10 indicators of the Leading Economic Index retreated — building permits, consumer expectations, interest rate spread, leading credit and new orders indexes and stock prices. New orders for consumer goods increased, while a decrease in average weekly claims for unemployment benefits also bolstered the index. Average weekly manufacturing hours and new orders for capital goods held steady.

The Coincident Economic Index rose three-tenths of a percent to 110.9. The index increased 1.1 percent over the previous six months.

For September, all four indicators of the index advanced — industrial production, nonfarm payrolls, personal income and sales.

The Lagging Economic Index rose two-tenths of a percent to 118.5. The index has increased two-tenths of a percent over the past three months.

For September, four of seven indicators of the index advanced — commercial and industrial financing, consumer credit, the cost of services and inventories. Labor costs retreated, while an increase in the average duration of unemployment also pulled down the index. The average prime rate charged by banks held steady.