A monthly index forecasting economic conditions in the United States continues to decline, signaling the risk of recession.

The Conference Board reported its Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined three-tenths of a point to 110.3 in January. While separate measures of current and past conditions increased, the latest readings suggest an elevated risk of economic contraction.

“While the LEI continues to signal recession in the near term, indicators related to the labor market — including employment and personal income — remain robust so far,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economics at the Conference Board. “Nonetheless, the Conference Board still expects high inflation, rising interest rates and contracting consumer spending to tip the U.S. into recession in 2023.”

The LEI retreated 3.6 percent over the past six months, a steeper decline than the 2.4 percent drop over the six months before that.

By comparison, gross domestic product rose at an annual rate of  2.9 percent in the fourth quarter and 3.2 percent in the third quarter.

For January, five of 10 components of the LEI advanced, including average weekly manufacturing hours, new orders for both consumer and capital goods and stock prices. A decrease in average weekly claims for unemployment insurance also bolstered the index. Declining components included consumer expectations, interest rate spread and leading credit and new orders indexes. Building permits held steady.

The Coincident Economic Index rose two-tenths of a percent to 109.5. The index increased seventh-tenths of a percent over the past six months.

For January, all four components of the index advanced — industrial production, nonfarm payrolls, personal income and sales.

The Lagging Economic Index rose two-tenths of a point to 118.5. The index increased 1.1 percent over the past three months.

For January, three of seven components of the index advanced — the average prime interest rate charged by banks, consumer credit and the cost of services. Three components retreated, including commercial and industrial financing and cost of labor. An increase in the average duration of unemployment also pulled down the index. Inventories held steady.