An index forecasting economic condtions in the United States continues to increase, signaling growth in the second half of the year.
The Conference Board reported its Leading Economic Index rose three-tenths of a percent to 128.3 in July. Separate measures of current and past economic performance also increased.
“The U.S. LEI improved in July, suggesting the U.S. economy may experience further improvements in economic activity in the second half of the year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, an economist with the Conference Board, a business research and membership association.
“The large negative contribution from housing permits, a reversal from June, was more than offset by gains in the financial indicators, new orders and sentiment,” Ozyildirim said.
The Leading Economic Index has advanced 2.3 percent over the past six months, more than the 1.5 percent gain over the six months before that. Strengths among leading indicators have remained widespread.
Gross domestic product, the broad measure of goods and services produced in the country, rose at an annual rate of 2.6 percent during the second quarter, up from 1.2 percent in the first quarter.
For July, eight of 10 indicators of the Leading Economic Index advanced, including consumer expectations for business conditions, interest rate spread, a leading credit index, new orders for consumer and capital goods, a new orders index and stock prices. A decrease in initial claims for unemployment benefits also bolstered the index. Building permits declined, while average weekly manufacturing hours held steady.
The Coincident Economic Index, a measure of current performance, rose three-tenths of a percent to 115.7. The index has gained 1.1 percent over the past six months.
For July, all four indicators of the index advanced: industrial production, nonfarm payrolls, personal income and sales.
The Lagging Economic Index, a measure of past performance, edged up a tenth of a percent to 124.8. The index has increased a half percent over the past three months.
For July, three of seven indicators of the index advanced and three retreated. The average prime rate charged by banks increased, as did commercial and industrial financing and consumer credit. The cost of labor and services decreased. An increase in the average duration of unemployment also pulled down the index. Inventories remained unchanged.