A monthly index forecasting economic conditions in the United States continues to decline, signaling slowing ahead.

The Conference Board reported its Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased six-tenths of a percent to 101.8 in April. Separate measures of current and past conditions both increased.

“Another decline in the U.S. LEI confirms that softer economic conditions lay ahead,” said Justyna
Zabinska-La Monica, the senior manager of business cycle indicators at the Conference Board.

The LEI declined 1.9 percent over the past six months, a smaller retreat than the 3.5 percent decline over the six months before that.

“While the LEI’s six-month and annual growth rates no longer signal a forthcoming recession, they still point to serious headwinds to growth ahead,” she said. “Indeed, elevated inflation, high interest rates, rising household debt and depleted pandemic savings are all expected to continue weighing on the U.S. economy in 2024.”

The Conference Board projected growth in gross domestic product, the broad measure of goods and services produced in the U.S., to slow to less than 1 percent during the second and third quarters. GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2024 and 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023.

For April, five of 10 indicators of the Leading Economic Index retreated, including building permits, consumer expectations for business conditions, interest rate spread, a new orders index and stock prices. Four indicators advanced, including new orders for capital and consumer goods and a leading credit index. A decrease in weekly average claims for unemployment insurance also bolstered the index. Average weekly manufacturing hours held steady.

The Coincident Economic Index rose two-tenths of a percent to 112.3. The index rose nine-tenths of a percent over the past six months. For April, all four components advanced — industrial production, nonfarm payrolls, personal income and sales.

The Lagging Economic Index gained four-tenths of a percent to climb to 119.5. The index increased six-tenths of a percent over the past three months. For April, commercial and industrial financing and consumer credit bolstered the index, as did a decrease in the average duration of  unemployment. Labor costs pulled down the index. The average prime interest rate charged by banks, cost of services and inventories all remained unchanged.