A monthly index forecasting economic conditions in the United States continues to retreat — signaling what could be slower growth, but not a recession.

The Conference Board reported its Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased six-tenths of a percent to 100.4 in July.
A separate measure of current conditions held steady. A measure of past conditions decreased.

Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at the Conference Board, said the LEI continues to fall on a month-over-month basis. But the six-month growth rate no longer signals recession.

Over the past six months, the LEI decreased 2.1 percent. That was less than the 3.1 percent drop over the six months before that. Weaknesses among leading indicators remained widespread, however.

“These data continue to suggest headwinds in economic growth going forward,” Zabinska-La Monica said.

The Conference Board forecast growth in gross domestic product, the broad measure of goods and services produced in the country, to slow to an annual rate of six-tenths of a percent in the third quarter and 1 percent in the fourth quarter. GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the second quarter after rising 1.4 percent in the first quarter.

For July, four of 10 indicators of the LEI increased, including a leading credit index, new orders for both consumer and capital goods and stock prices. Average weekly manufacturing hours, building permits, consumer expectations for business conditions, interest rate spread and a new orders index decreased. Average weekly claims for unemployment benefits held steady.

The Coincident Economic Index remained unchanged between June and July at 112.5. The index rose nine-tenths of a percent over the past six months.

For July, three of four indicators of the index advanced — nonfarm payrolls, personal income and sales. Industrial production retreated.

The Lagging Economic Index edged down a tenth of a percent to 119.6. The index held steady over the past three months.

For July, three of seven components of the index increased, including consumer credit and inventories. A decrease in the average duration of unemployment also bolstered the index. Changes in the cost of labor and services pulled down the index, as did commercial and industrial financing. The average prime rate charged by banks held steady.