Leading index signals slowing in U.S. growth

Justyna Zabinska-La Monica

A monthly index forecasting economic conditions in the United States continues to retreat, signaling what could be slower growth.

The Conference Board reported its Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased two-tenths of a percent to 101.1 in June. Separate measures of current and past conditions increased.

Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at the Conference Board, said the latest decline in the index reflects gloomy consumer expectations, fewer new orders and more claims for unemployment benefits. Because of a slower rate of decline, however, the long-term growth of the LEI is less negative.

“Taken together, June’s data suggest that economic activity is likely to continue to lose momentum in the months ahead,” she said.

The Conference Board forecasts growth in gross domestic product, the broad measure of goods and services produced in the country, to slow to an annual rate of 1 percent in the third quarter.

Over the past six months, the LEI has declined 1.9 percent, less than the 3.8 percent drop over the six months before that. Weakness among leading indicators remained widespread, though.

By comparison, GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the first quarter and 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter.

For June, six of 10 indicators of the LEI  increased — average weekly manufacturing hours, building permits, a leading credit index, new orders for both capital and consumer goods and stock prices. Consumer  expectations for business conditions, interest rate spread and a new orders index decreased. An increase in initial weekly claims for unemployment benefits also pulled the index down.

The Coincident Economic Index rose three-tenths of a percent to 112.6. The index increased six-tenths of a percent over the past six months.

For June, all four indicators of the index advanced — industrial production, nonfarm payrolls, personal income and sales.

The Lagging Economic Index edged up a tenth of a percent to 119.5. The index rose three-tenths of a percent over the past three months.

For June, four of seven indicators of the index increased, including commercial and industrial financing, consumer credit and inventories. A decrease in the average duration of unemployment also bolstered the index. Changes in the cost of labor and services pulled down the index. The average prime rate charged by banks remained unchanged.