The Colorado economy should continue to grow through 2024, but at what likely will be a slower pace, according to the latest results of a midyear business review.

“Based on both the quantitative and qualitative information we have received, we are optimistic of a continued, but slower, growth path for Colorado,” said Richard Wobbekind, senior economist and faculty director of the business research division of the Leeds School of Business at the University of Colorado at Boulder.

Brian Lewandowski, executive director of the business research division, agreed. “While the economy looks poised for slower growth in 2024, the state is on  a continued growth trajectory for the year.”

The division prepares an annual business and economic forecast for Colordo. The leaders of 14 committees involved in the forecast met in June to update the report.

Heading into 2024, the report forecast employment growth of 41,900 nonfarm payroll jobs. The revised report increased that projection to 49,600 jobs with the biggest gains in the natural resources and mining, government and education and health services sectors. Declines were predicted for the construction and information sectors as well as the trade, transportation and utilities sector.

As of June, the latest month for which estimates are available, nonfarm payrolls had increased 40,900 over the past year in Colorado, a gain of 1.4 percent. The statewide seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stood at 3.8 percent.

In Mesa County, nonfarm payrolls edged down 103 over the past year to 72,933.

Gross domestic product, the broad measure of goods and services produced in the state, totaled $539 billion in Colorado in the first quarter of 2024. Adjusting for inflation, GDP increased at annual rate of 2.3 percent for the quarter. and 3.3 percent year over year.

The largest year-over-year proportional increases in GDP occurred in the agriculture, foresting fishing and hunting; mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction; and retail trade industries. The largest decreases occurred in the wholesale trade and other services sectors.

Colorado agricultural exports from January to April totaled $873.4 million, up 17.4 percent compared to the same period last year. Beef and beef byproducts remain the top export from the state, accounting for more than three-fourths of the total.

Meanwhile, the Colorado population continues to grow in part as a result of migration, the report stated.

According to the state demography office, the Colorado population increased 36,500 in 2023 to 5.8 million by the end of the year. Because of slowing in births and deaths, migration has become a bigger factor in affecting population change. Net migration for 2023 came lower than the 35,000 forecast, reaching only 20,000.

Migration is expected to increase over the next five to seven years in response to new jobs and the expected retirement of 40,000 people a year.

Even as economic indicators reflect continued growth, Colorado business leaders remain wary heading into the third quarter, according to the latest results of an index tracking their expectations.

The Leeds Business Confidence Index retreated 3.1 points between the second and third quarters to 50.6. The latest reading remained above 50 for a second straight quarter. Readings above 50 reflect more positive than negative responses to the survey upon which the index is based. But looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the reading was slightly lower at 49.9.

All six individual components of the third quarter index decreased between the second and third quarters, two of them to below neutral 50.

The business research division of the Leeds School of Business calculates the index based on the results of quarterly surveys of business leaders from across the state and industry sectors.

Out of 201 leaders who responded to the third quarter survey in June, 150 offered open-ended explanations for their outlooks. While 26 percent of those who responded attributed their responses to higher interest rates, 21 percent cited uncertainty over the upcoming election and 17 percent their general sentiments. While 10 percent of respondents expressed optimism for the future, 7 percent expressed pessimism. Assessments of consumer confidence and demand were both positive and negative.

A separate measure of optimism among small business owners climbed in June to its highest level of this year, but remained below its historical average.

The National Federation of Independent Business reported its Small Business Optimism Index rose a point between May and June to 91.5. That’s the highest level since the index stood at 91.9 in December. However, the index has remained below its 50-year average of 98 for 30 consecutive months.

The proportion of NFIB members responding to the survey upon which the June index was based who expected the economy to improve rose five points between May and June. But at a net negative 25 percent, more members anticipated worsening conditions.