​​Brandon Leuallen, The Business Times 

The School District 51 Board of Education last week voted unanimously to close three elementary schools that were recommended for closure by Superintendent Brian Hill. Clifton, Scenic and Nisley elementary schools join two other schools the district closed in the past two years: East Middle School and Fruita 8/9 School.

The reason for closing schools is a simple one: shrinking student enrollment. The district’s enrollment has decreased by more than 2,000 students during the past five years, and it is projected to continue decreasing.

The reasons for the decline are more complex. Some seem obvious, but The Business Times reviewed data and conducted interviews to delineate those reasons and explain why the elementary-school level suffered the consequences.

A presentation titled “Creating a Sustainable D51,” available in the Quick Links of the district’s website, www.d51schools.org, says: “The number of elementary students living in Mesa County and attending Mesa County Valley School District 51 schools has steadily declined since our peak enrollment year in 2019, largely due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, state and nationwide declining birth rates, and families leaving our county and state for various reasons, including affordability.”

The following is a breakdown of the reasons:

Pandemic Impact on Enrollment

Enrollment numbers from the superintendent’s office, broken down by categories of students entering and leaving, showed the COVID-19 pandemic year of 2020 had a significant impact on enrollment.

The district lost 873 students in 2020 due to moves out of the district, homeschooling, private schooling, out-of-district charter schools, and online schooling. In 2021, the district regained 155 students, resulting in a combined net loss of 718 students in the two school years.

The greatest loss during that time is attributed to homeschooling, with 220 students leaving. Among them 147 moved out of state, and 43 enrolled in nonpublic schools. Since then, the district experienced 632 students leaving in 2023 and 222 in 2024.

The district’s high schools, though, are defying the enrollment decline. District 51 recorded its highest graduation rate in 17 years in 2023, and District 51 demographer Shannon Bingham said the opening of the new Grand Junction High School “helped bring some students back into the district.”

Reasons for Leaving

The Business Times conducted interviews with more than a dozen parents about why they moved their children out of the district. Their reasons included:

• The district’s offerings didn’t include an approach that aligned with their children’s needs.
• Concerns about what they perceived as “political indoctrination” in public schools.
• Excessive bullying.
• Cost of living is too high in Grand Junction.

One parent whose family moved out of state said it was because of the cost of living, while another said it is for political reasons, primarily the state of Colorado’s Democratic leanings.

Population Trends

Bingham said the local school-age population in Mesa County is declining despite an increase in the overall population. Census data shows the county’s population increase is driven by incoming retirees aged 65 and older. 

Mesa County Public Health Department data indicates birth rates declined over the past decade, averaging about 40 fewer births per year. In the “Tracking Population Trends in Mesa County” report from Jan. 5, 2024, the county showed  2,035 births in 2008 compared to 1,433 in 2023. The decline is attributed to factors such as increased access to birth control, with a 56 percent decrease in births among low-income women under age 25 from 2008 to 2022.

The birth-rate decline is not unique to Mesa County; it is a national and global trend, according to Bingham, who added, “We started seeing smaller families about eight years ago.” 

He described what he’s seeing as a demographer who has worked for more than 200 school districts over a 42-year period, offering: “American education is in the midst of a generational change, and millennial and Generation Z young adults are having smaller families. And that’s pretty profound. It’s affecting (school) districts all over the United States. A lot of districts are closing schools.

“Millennials had about 70 percent of the child volume that prior generations had. And Generation Z population, which is 11 to about 26 years old right now … what we’re seeing in actual family creation and in focus groups (is) that we’re probably going to see about half as many kids from Gen Z young adults once they get into their kind of childbearing years than the current generation.”

School Choice and In-District Charters

One common question from community members in open school board meetings and on social media is why the district is closing schools rather than relocating students from schools that have large class sizes that could stand to be reduced.

District officials have explained that while there are enrollment caps for schools, they cannot force students to attend schools with low enrollment or outside their residential zones. According to Superintendent Hill, as schools close, the district plans to rezone students accordingly.

During the Nov. 19 school board meeting, Hill said elementary schools were at a 65 percent usage rate overall. He also said he considered recommending closing four to five elementary schools, but he did not because the district then would have lay off employees. 

District 51 has a long-standing policy of providing school choice to families. Students may attend a different-zoned neighborhood school if space is available. The district also offers what it calls “option” schools, such as Dual Immersion Academy and New Emerson, which determine enrollment by a lottery rather than a residential zone.

There are also District 51 charter schools, including Juniper Ridge, Mesa Valley and Independence Academy. These schools have waiting lists, determined by a lottery system with sibling preference. 

Out-of-District Charter and Private Schools

State-run charter schools such as Caprock Academy, GOAL Online High School, Ascent Classical Academy and Wildflower Montessori School are other options available in the area.  State charter schools are not part of the district and also use a lottery system for enrollment. Students enrolled in those schools decrease District 51’s enrollment.

Caprock Academy opened in 2007, and GOAL opened in 2013. Ascent Classical Academy, and Wildflower Montessori were released to the state by the school board by a unanimous vote in 2022. Ascent opened in August 2023, and Wildflower held its ribbon-cutting ceremony Sept. 14, 2024.

Additionally, at least 14 active private schools are operating in Mesa County.

Hill, who became superintendent in July 2022, first suggested the possibility of exploring school closures in December of 2022, after the new charters were released. 

Affordability and Housing Challenges

Bingham said the lack of affordable housing is a major issue for young families with school-age children.

“The Western Slope is pricing young families out of the market,” he said.

Bingham’s demographic data shows that new, single-family, detached homes yield an average of 0.42 students per home. However, higher-priced homes yield fewer students, while many new high-density housing developments have even lower student yields.

For example, he said he knows of a development with more than 100 apartments that produced only eight District 51 students. In contrast, mobile homes, typically more affordable, average 1 student per home.