Rural economic index retreats to 2024 low

Ernie Goss

An index tracking the rural economy in Colorado and nine other states retreated to its lowest level in nine months.

The overall reading for the Rural Mainstreet Index fell four-tenths of a point between July and August to 40.9. That’s the lowest level since November. The index has stayed below growth-neutral 50 for a year.

The overall reading for Colorado fell 1.1 points, but at 51.1 remained above growth-neutral 50 and was  second highest among the 10 states.

Ernie Goss — an economics professor at Creighton University in Omaha, Neb., who compiles the index — attributed the latest decline to weak agriculture commodity prices and lower farm exports and equipment sales.

Goss bases the index on the results of monthly surveys of bank executives in rural areas of the 10-state region dependent on the agriculture and energy sectors.

Asked to identify what they believed were the biggest threats to regional banking over the next year, 60.9 percent of the bankers blamed falling farm commodity prices. Another 17.6 percent cited higher interest rates.

In Colorado, the farm and ranch land price index for the state fell 3.4 points to 51.2. The new hiring index dropped 2.9 points to 50.2.

According to information from the International Trade Association, year-to-date exports of agricultural goods and livestock from Colorado in 2024 were up $131.2 million — more than 200 percent — from the same period in 2023.

Across the 10-state region, a component of the index tracking banker confidence fell a point to 27.3. A new hiring index slipped a half point to 45.5.

The home sales index rebounded 26.7 points to 50. But the retail sales index edged down four-tenths of a point to 38.6, the lowest level since November 2020.

The farm and ranch land price index fell 6.7 points to 45.5. The farm equipment sales index slumped 2.3 points to 16.7, the lowest level since January 2017.