Rural index slumps to four-year low

Ernie Goss

An index tracking the rural economy in Colorado and nine other states retreated to its lowest level in more than four years.

The overall reading for the Rural Mainstreet Index fell 3.4 points between August and September to 37.5. That’s the lowest level since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States in early 2020 and well below growth-neutral 50.

The overall reading for Colorado jumped 10.5 points to 61.6, by far the highest level among the 10 states.

Ernie Goss — an economics professor at Creighton University in Omaha, Neb., who compiles the index — attributed the 10-state index decline to a combination of factors. “Weak agriculture commodity prices, sinking agriculture equipment sales and elevated input costs pushed the overall reading below growth-neutral for the 13th straight month.”

Goss bases the index on the results of monthly surveys of bank executives in rural areas of the 10-state region dependent on the agriculture and energy sectors.

In Colorado, the farm and ranch land price index for the state rose 8.8 points to 60 while the new hiring index jumped 13.1 points to 63.3.

According to separate information from the International Trade Association, year-to-date exports of agricultural goods and livestock from Colorado in 2024 were up $152.7 million — more than 200 percent — from the same period in 2023.

Across the 10-state region, a component of the index tracking banker confidence fell 4.4 points to 22.9, the lowest level since November and an indication of increased pessimism about economic growth over the next six months.

A new hiring index dropped two points to 43.5.

After rebounding 26.7 points between July and August, the home sales index fell 6.2 points between August and September to 43.8. The  retail sales index retreated 8.4 points to 30.4, the lowest level since June 2020.

The farm and ranch land price index decreased 1.7 points to 43.8. The farm equipment sales index increased 2.3 points to 19, but remained below growth neutral 50 for a 14th consecutive month.