Small business index rises, but still reflects concerns

William Dunkelberg

A monthly measure of confidence among small business owners edged up, but still reflects concerns.

The National Federation of Independent Business reported its Small Business Optimism Index rose four-tenths of a point in May. But at 89.4, the index remained below its historical average of 98 for a 17th consecutive month.

“Overall, small business owners are expressing concerns for future business conditions,” said Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist of the NFIB. “Supply chain disruptions and labor shortages will continue to limit the ability of many small firms to meet the demand for their products and services.”

Tony Gagliardi, state director of the NFIB in Colorado, also said concerns persist in the aftermath of the latest legislative session. “Unfortunately, Colorado’s Legislature did not take meaningful action this session to brighten the economic outlook among our state’s Main Street businesses. This leaves the congressional passage of the Main Street Tax Certainty Act and other pro-small business legislation as a top priority.”

Tony Gagliardi NFIB

Gagliardi also called on Colorado Gov. Jared Polis to call a special legislative session to develop an alternative to Proposition HH, a ballot measure intended to provide property tax relief, but at the expense of revenue the state collects above constitutional limits and is required to return.

The NFIB bases the index on the results of monthly surveys of members of the small business advocacy group, most of them small business owners. Between April and May, four of 10 components of the index increased, five decreased and one remained unchanged.

The proportion of members who responded to the survey upon which the May index was based who expect the economy to improve fell a point. At a net negative 50 percent, more members anticipated worsening conditions.

A net 25 percent reported plans for capital outlays, up six points. But only 3 percent said they consider now a good time to expand, unchanged.

The share of members who said they expected increased sales fell two points. At a net negative 21 percent, more anticipated decreased sales.

Expectations for earnings dropped three points to a net negative 26 percent. Among those reporting lower earnings, 29 percent blamed lower sales and 26 percent cited rising material costs.

A net 19 percent of members reported plans to increase staffing, up two points. A net 44 percent reported hard-to-fill job openings, down a point. Among those trying to hire in May, 89 percent reported few or no qualified applicants.

Asked to identify their single most important problem, 25 percent answered inflation and 24 percent cited quality of labor.

The proportion of members who reported plans to increase inventories rose three points. But at a net negative 2 percent, more expected decreased inventories. The share of those who said current inventories were too low rose two points to a net negative 3 percent.