Small Business Optimism Index edges down

William Dunkelberg

On the 50th anniversary of an index tracking optimism among small business owners, the latest results offered little to celebrate.

Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist of the National Federation of Independent Business, called the outlook for the remainder of the year “gloomy.”

“The October data shows that small businesses are still recovering, and owners are not optimistic about better business conditions,” Dunkelberg said.

The NFIB reported its Small Business Optimism Index edged down a tenth of a point to 90.7 for October. The index has remained below what’s now a 50-year average for the index for 22 straight months.

The NFIB has compiled the index on a quarterly basis since 1973 and a monthly basis since 1986. The NFIB bases the index on the results of monthly surveys of members of the small business advocacy group, most of them small business owners.

For October, five of 10 components of the index advanced Two declined and three remained unchanged from September.

The proportion of NFIB members who responded to the survey upon which the October index was based who said they expect the economy to improve over the next six months held steady. But at a net negative 43 percent, the level remained at a recessionary level.

A net 24 percent of NFIB members said they plan to increase capital outlays over the next few months, also unchanged from a month ago. A net 6 percent said they consider now a good time to expand, up a point.

The share of members who said they expected increased sales rose three points. But at a net negative 10 percent, more anticipated decreased sales.

Expectations for earnings fell eight points to a net negative 32 percent. Among those reporting lower profits, 32 percent attributed the trend to weaker sales, 21 percent cited higher materials costs and 14 percent blamed higher labor costs.

A net 17 percent of members said they plan to increase staffing over the next three months, down a point from September. At the same time, 43 percent reported hard-to-fill job openings, unchanged from a month ago. A net 24 percent of owners reported plans to increase compensation, up a point.

The proportion of members who said they plan to increase inventories edged up a point, but only to a net negative 0 percent. The share of those who said current inventories were too low rose a point to a net negative 3 percent.

Asked to identify their single most important problem in operating their businesses, 23 percent cited quality of labor. That was followed closely by inflation at 22 percent.

A net 30 percent of members reported raising average selling prices. up a point from September.