A quarterly measure of confidence among business executives has advanced on more optimistic assessments for the United States economy.

The Conference Board reported its Measure of CEO Confidence rose a point to 54 for the second quarter, remaining above 50 for a second consecutive quarter. A reading above 50 reflects more positive than negative responses to the survey upon which the index was based.

Dana Peterson, chief economist for the Conference Board, said CEOs are more optimistic, but still wary. “CEOs remain cautious for the year ahead.”

Roger Ferguson, both a trustee of the Conference Board and vice chairman of the Business Council, agreed. “CEOs’ views about the economy have shifted from six months ago.”

For the second quarter, 16 percent of the 136 CEOs who participated in the
latest survey, said general economic conditions were worse, down from 22 percent in the first quarter. Although 30 percent of CEOs said conditions were better, that’s down from 32 percent from the first quarter.

Looking ahead, 30 percent of CEOs said they expected economic conditions to improve over the next six months, down from 36 percent in the first quarter. Meanwhile, 26 percent said they anticipated worsening conditions, down a point from the first quarter.

Only 35 percent of executives said they anticipated a recession within the next 12 to 18 months, about half the 72 percent who said they expected a recession in the fourth quarter of 2023. “Recession fears have faded considerably,” Ferguson said.

While 64 percent of CEOs said they’re not planning to revise capital spending plans, 21 percent anticipated increasing capital budgets over the next year.

While 33 percent of CEOs said they expected to expand their workforces over the next year, 21 percent anticipated layoffs.

Attracting qualified workers remained a challenge, 31 percent of CEOs reported, but only in key areas. Meanwhile, 75 percent of executives reported plans to increase wages by 3 percent or more over the next year.

“Persistent concerns about labor shortages are still prompting many CEOs to anticipate the need to retain workers,” Peterson said. “This labor hoarding comes at the cost of higher input costs.”